GDP logs 4.6% growth in Q4; Per Capita Income goes up to Rs 74380: CSO
By TIOL News Service
NEW DELHI, MAY 31, 2014: AS per the latest CSO statistics, the Indian economy grew by only 4.6% in Q4 and thus bringing down the annual growth rate to 4.7%.
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Constant prices
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Current prices
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At Factor cost
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Market price
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At Factor cost
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Market price
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Annual 2013-14
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4.7
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5.0
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11.5
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12.3
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Q1 2013-14(April-June)
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4.7
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4.2
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10.6
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10.3
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Q2 2013-14(July-Sep)
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5.2
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5.2
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12.7
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13.6
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Q3 2013-14(Oct-Dec)
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4.6
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4.4
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12.8
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13.0
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Q4 2013-14 (Jan-Mar)
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4.6
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6.1
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10.2
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12.2
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Estimates including growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 released earlier have been revised according to the revision policy of this Ministry.
The advance estimates of national income for the year 2013-14 were released on 7th February, 2014. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking, insurance and government expenditure.
The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
Gross Domestic Product
GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2013-14 is now estimated at Rs 57.42 lakh crore (as against Rs 57.49 lakh crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2014), showing a growth rate of 4.7 percent (as against 4.9 percent estimated earlier) over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2012-13 of Rs 54.82 lakh crore, released on 31th January 2014.
In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (106.29 million Tonnes from 106.19 million Tonnes), wheat (95.85 million Tonnes from 95.60 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (348.38 million Tonnes from 345.92 million Tonnes) for the year 2013-14. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector in 2013-14 has shown a growth rate of 4.7 percent, as against the growth rate of 4.6 percent in the Advance Estimates.
In the case of ‘mining and quarrying', the Index of Industrial Production of Mining registered a decline of 0.8 percent during 2013-14, as against the decline of 2.2 percent during April-November, 2013, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 0.8 percent and (-) 0.2 percent in 2013-14 as compared to growth rates of 1.2 percent and (-) 0.6 percent during April to December, 2013. The growth of ‘mining &quarrying' is now estimated at (-) 1.4 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-)1.9 percent.
Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of (-) 0.8 percent during 2013-14, as against the projected growth rate of (-)0.3 percent for April- March 2013-14 used for compiling the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing' sector is now estimated at (-) 0.7 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-) 0.2 percent.
The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 3.0 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively in 2013-14 as against 3.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively during April-December 2013. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 1.6 percent as against 1.7 percent in the Advance Estimates.
The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 14.6 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively during 2013-14 over the corresponding period in 2012-13, as compared to growth of 15.9 percent and 14.5 percent as on December 2013. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 20.2 per cent, 1.8 percent, 2.6 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively during April-March of 2013-14. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 1.6 and (-) 1.9 percent respectively during 2013-14. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 3.0 percent in 2013-14 as against 3.5 percent in the advance estimate released in February, 2014.
The sector `community, social and personal services` has shown a growth rate of 5.6 per cent in the provisional estimates, as against the growth rate of 7.4 per cent in the advance estimates, mainly due to fall in total expenditure of Central Government than anticipated (during April-December 2013). The total expenditure of Central Government showed a rise of 17.4 per cent which was extrapolated in the advance estimates, whereas the Revised Estimates (RE) 2013-14 of Central Government expenditure showed a rise of only 12.8 per cent.
Gross National Income
The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs 56.74 lakh crore (as compared to Rs 56.81 lakh crore estimated on 7th February 2014), during 2013-14, as against the previous year's First Revised Estimate of Rs 54.17 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.7 percent during 2013-14, in comparison to the growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2012-13.
Per Capita Net National Income
The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs 39,904 (as against Rs 39,961 estimated on 7th February, 2014), as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 of Rs 38,856. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.7 percent during 2013-14 as against 2.1 percent during 2012-13.
(b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product
GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2013-14 is estimated at Rs 104.73 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.5 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2012-13 of Rs 93.89 lakh crore, released on 31th January 2014.
Gross National Income
The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs 103.45 lakh crore during 2013-14, as compared to Rs 92.72 lakh crore during 2012-13, showing a rise of 11.6 percent.
Per Capita Net National Income
The per capita income at current prices during 2013-14 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs 74,380 as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 of Rs 67,839 showing a rise of 9.6 percent.
