By TIOL News Service

NEW DELHI, JAN 08, 2017: AS per the latest CSO data, the real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of Rs 121.55 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of Rs 113.50 lakh crore, released on 31 st May 2016. The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.

Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices

Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs 104.27 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 111.53 lakh crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 7.0 percent against 7.2 percent in 2015-16.

The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are, 'public administration, defence and other services', 'financial, real estate and professional services' and ‘manufacturing'.

The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing', ‘mining and quarrying', ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services', ‘construction' and ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' is estimated to be 4.1 per cent, (-)1.8 per cent, 6.5 percent, 2.9 per cent and 6.0 percent respectively.

Agriculture

The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector is likely to show a growth of 4.1 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17, as against the previous year's growth rate of 1.2 per cent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the First Advance Estimates of production of major Kharif crops for 2016-17 and targets based on rabi sowings. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production growth of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2016-17 was 8.9 percent as compared to decline of 3.2 percent during the same period in 2015-16. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of targets are available for milk, egg, and wool, from the Department of Animal Husbandry, Ministry of Agriculture. Around 39.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of above 3.7 percent in 2016-17.

Mining and quarrying

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying' sector is estimated to decline by 1.8 percent as compared to growth of 7.4 percent in 2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 1.6 per cent, (-)3.5 percent and (-)3.7 percent respectively during April-November 2016-17 as compared to 4.3 percent, (-)0.4 percent and (-)2.3 percent respectively during April-November, 2015-16. The growth rates observed in these items have been used to extrapolate the Provisional Estimates of value of output of coal, crude petroleum, and other major and minor minerals, respectively. IIP of mining registered growth rate of (-)0.2 percent during April-October, 2016-17 as compared to 2.2 percent during April-October, 2015-16. Advance Estimate of IIP for 2016-17 of this sector, compiled by dividing the cumulative index for the first 7 months of the current financial year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years has been used. The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector was estimated using latest available information on major listed companies during first half of 2016-17.

Manufacturing

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing' sector is estimated to grow by 7.4 percent as compared to growth of 9.3 percent in 2015-16. The private corporate sector has a share of around 72 percent in the manufacturing sector. The private corporate sector growth in the manufacturing sector was estimated using latest available information on major listed companies during first half of 2016-17. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which include individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 23 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. The Advance Estimates of IIP at 2-digit industry groups for the current year are initially compiled by dividing the cumulative index for the 7 months of the current year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years. The estimated IIP so derived for the current year at 2-digit level is used to extrapolate the previous year's value added estimates at 2-digit level, separately for the quasi corporate and household sectors. IIP manufacturing registered growth rates of (-) 1.0 during April-October, 2016-17 as compared to 5.1 percent during April-October, 2015-16. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products registered a growth of 2.0 per cent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to (-)1.3 percent during April-November, 2015-16.

Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Electricity ,Gas, water supply and other utility services' sector is expected to grow by 6.5 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in 2015-16. The Advance Estimates of key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity compiled b y dividing the cumulative index for the 7 months of the current year, by the average of ratio of 7 months index to the annual index of past years has been used. IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 4.6 percent during April-October, 2016-17 as against 5.2 percent growth during April-October, 2015-16.

Construction

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Construction' sector is expected to grow by 2.9 percent as compared to growth of 3.9 percent in 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 4.3 percent and 3.0 percent respectively during April-November, 2016-17.

Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting

The estimated growth in GVA for the trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting services during 2016-17 is placed at 6.0 per cent as against growth of 9.0 percent in the previous year. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection is expected to grow by 8.6 percent during 2016-17. WPI of all commodities registered 2.8 percent growth during April-November 2016-17 as against (-)3.3 percent during April-November, 2015-16. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-) 7.4 per cent and (-) 0.4 percent respectively during April-November 2016-17. Cargo handled at major sea ports increased by 6.8 per cent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 3.4 percent during April-November, 2015-16. Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased by 19.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively during April-November , 2016-17 as compared to 16.5 percent and 5.9 percent respectively during April-November , 2015-16 . Sales of commercial vehicles registered growth of 4.7 percent during April-November, 2016-17 as compared to 8.1 percent during April-November, 2015-16.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

The estimated growth in GVA for this sector during 2016-17 is placed at 9.0 percent as compared to growth of 10.3 percent in 2015-16. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which was estimated using latest available information on listed companies for the first half of 2016-17. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 9.8 per cent, and 9.1 per cent, respectively as on October 2016 as against growth of 10.5 percent and 8.8 percent respectively as on October 2015.

Public administration and defence and other services

GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is expected to grow by 12.8 percent as compared to growth of 6.6 percent in 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 25.3 percent during April-November 2016-17.