By TIOL News Service

GENEVA, SEPT 22, 2017: WTO economists have issued a strong upward revision to their forecast for 2017 trade expansion following a sharp acceleration in global trade growth in the first half of the year.

The estimate for growth in world merchandise trade volume in 2017 was raised to 3.6%. The previous estimate for 2017 was 2.4%, though this was set within a range of 1.8%-3.6%, reflecting the high level of economic and policy uncertainty. The new estimate puts the focus on the top end of that range. Growth of 3.6% would represent a substantial improvement on the lacklustre 1.3% increase in 2016. Reflecting the continued forecast risk arising from deep uncertainty about near-term economic and policy developments, the range of estimates for world trade growth has been adjusted to 3.2% - 3.9%. Stronger growth in 2017 was attributed to a resurgence of Asian trade flows as intra-regional shipments picked up and as import demand in North America recovered after stalling in 2016.

The new estimate for world trade growth in 2017 is at the high end of the range of estimates provided in WTO economists' most recent trade forecast of 12 April 2017 (1.8% - 3.6%). The strength of the revision is partly due to a modest improvement in the consensus forecast for world GDP growth (2.8% in 2017 at market exchange rates, up from 2.3% in 2016) and partly due to the composition of that growth.

GDP growth accelerated in most major economies in the second quarter, most notably in China where quarter-on-quarter growth rose from 1.3% in Q1 (equivalent to an annual rate of around 5.3%) to 1.7% in Q2 (around 7.0% annualized). Growth also strengthened in the United States from 1.2% annualized in Q1 to 3.0% in Q3) and the euro area (from 2.2% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q2).

Stronger growth particularly in China and the United States boosted demand for imports, which spurred intra-Asia-trade as demand was transmitted through regional supply chains. Chinese demand in the first half of 2017 was driven by solid growth in industry (up 6.4% in real terms for the year to date) and even stronger growth in services (up 7.7% over the same period). Financial conditions in Asia also improved compared to the volatile first quarter of 2016, contributing to business and consumer confidence.

The partial recovery of oil prices in 2017 also appears to have provided some support for investment in the United States, growth of which slowed abruptly in 2016 – particularly in the energy sector – but has picked up in the first half of this year. The import content of investment tends to be higher than other components of GDP, so a recovery of expenditure in this area would be expected to have an outsized impact on import demand.

The rapid pace of trade growth in 2017 is unlikely to be sustained next year for a number of reasons. First, trade growth in 2018 will not be measured against a weak base year, as is the case this year. Second, monetary policy is expected to tighten in developed countries as the Federal Reserve gradually raises interest rates in the United States and the European Central Bank looks to phase out quantitative easing in the euro area. Third, fiscal expansion and easy credit in China are likely to be reined in to prevent the economy from overheating. All of these factors should contribute to a moderation of trade growth in 2018 to around 3.2% (the full range of the estimate being from 1.4% to 4.4%).