DECEMBER 16, 2020

By Mala Prasad

THE munificent year 2021 is at our doorstep. 2020 would be considered as the year of paradoxes, a year that everyone would like to consider as never having existed. More people have died this year than both the World Wars, Pearl Harbour and Vietnam war combined and it's still not over yet. Hospitals are overwhelmed with more people than they have ever seen. People have spent most of the year locked down, caged in their homes, scared of becoming a statistic from a living being. All manufacturing activities came to a standstill for more than 68 days. Aviation, as we knew, it has ceased to be. Barriers have sprung up across countries where there were free boundaries. Shopping malls, Cinema halls, Restaurants, gyms, salons shuttered themselves. This year has seen acute unforeseen economic downturn. Lots of Indians lost their jobs. Migrant workers, whose remittances from across the globe used to cushion Indian economy, came back to the country jobless. Let us not forget the blue-collar workers who formed the backbone of the urban economy and who were forced to return to their hometown due to lack of jobs and the inability of the urban infrastructure to support them. Education system has been disrupted. Schools, Colleges, even convocations have become virtual. India's GDP has shrunk by 23.9 % in the 1 st quarter. The Life which we all lived has ceased to be and it will be a long time before things can return to 'normal'.

However, things are slowly coming back to their old self. India's GDP has also gained marginally in the 3rd quarter. Various vaccines with more than 90% effectiveness have been tested and have started being administered across the world. A promise to the end of the pandemic is in sight. India and Indians wait for that elusive vaccine.

Christmas is around the corner and it is time to examine whether this pandemic has caused only losses or whether it has also created a small window of opportunity. Let us turn the hourglass upside down and take a look at the Pandemic from the perspective of the opportunities it has created.

The foremost opportunity created by the pandemic has been the awareness of importance of health and healthcare infrastructure across the country. Today, every Divisional Magistrate, Block-In-charge, Panchayat Pramukh knows exactly what healthcare facilities are available in their jurisdictions as well as the demography of people living there. It has created a great opportunity to improve health infrastructure across the country. Now we know exactly what facilities are available in the country and where. Till now only 1% or less of GDP was allocated for health. Emphasis was also not on building health infrastructure but more on health management. The need to build health infrastructure has been felt and Indians have shown their capabilities in building hospitals in days during the pandemic. Indigenous manufacture of PPE kits, ventilators, Pulse oximeters, masks has become a reality. Not only have we become self-sufficient in these essentials but have started exporting them to other countries. Further work in this area will definitely provide boost for the economy and also generate employment.

Covid 19 has improved the Disaster Management capabilities of the entire country. Earlier, only some states like Odisha which has witnessed 110 storms in the last 120 years had honed its skills to deal with disasters with minimal loss of life and property. Other states like Bihar and Bengal which also witness flood every year have not yet learnt to manage the loss either through pre-emptive precautions or through post disaster management techniques. Every year hundreds in the Nepal Terai region lose life and property. The crisis caused by Covid 19 has taught people to manage disasters in a hurry. States are now seamlessly creating containment zones and feeding lacs of under privileged regularly for a sustained period of time without any Oomph or Aahs. State machinery and Civil societies have worked together in maintaining discipline associated with Covid 19 protocol. This skillset will be invaluable for the successful roll out of vaccine too. These capabilities will also help the country in dealing with other natural calamities plaguing India.

India's Economy has shrunk to unprecedented levels as a result of Covid. Lot of economic losses were reported. But manufacturing is now slowly hobbling to pre-Covid levels. Government of India is using the opportunity created by the crisis to work on indigenisation, by improving its manufacturing capabilities. Our Prime Minister has given the call for "Atma Nirbhar Bharat". Pandemic has shown us that in the recent past we had become over reliant on other countries like China for many of our raw materials and manufacturing. Bangladesh and Vietnam have overtaken us in Textile manufacturing where we used to be undisputed leaders. When the pandemic started, India was importing most of its Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (APIs) which is the basic ingredient for manufacture of Pharmaceuticals in the country, from China. Covid-19 made the country realize the extent of dependence of our country on China. From statue of our Gods to toys to lights to automobile content to APIs, in our quest for high profits, we had surrendered the leadership in manufacturing to China, neglecting quality. India spends a large part of its GDP on defence procurement from other countries, in spite of having DRDO in India since 1958 with a budget of over 2.1 billion dollars every year. Due to compulsion of Covid and the change in its focus, India has started taking baby steps in self-sufficiency in Ordnance and other defence manufacturing. This has been a very important development. Most of the latest trade negotiations have 'Make in India' clause to force weapon exporting countries to transfer technology.

Due to Covid-19, education from Nursery to Post Graduation has moved to online coaching. Not only are the teachers giving and receiving tutorials and Homework online, seminars and Conferences are also being held online. Webinars and Online trainings have picked up in a big way. This has resulted into massive Technological upgrade, both for the teachers and also for the students. Entire offices are being run offline. Work from home has made corporates realize that heavy investment in real estate for office premises can be foregone as work from home is viable. Even big-ticket companies like Google and Facebook have realized the importance of 'Work from Home'. Brick and Mortar culture is being expanded to include synergies with seamless offices. Data penetration and utilization has forced Broadband Service providers to rise to the occasion. They have formed the backbone of the 'Work from Home' revolution. Need for laptops and phones has skyrocketed. Demand for consumer goods is also picking up. During Covid, Drones were used for disinfection. IT Apps are being used for contact tracing and crowd control. Robots have been employed for giving medicines to Covid patients. India can now leverage AI and Data Science capabilities to improve its healthcare delivery.

Another important development has been that the exodus to foreign shores from India causing brain drain has almost come to a halt due to Covid. Many children who had gone abroad for studies have come back. Lot of skilled workers have also returned to Rural Areas. Covid has forced the focus of development to shift from urban to rural areas. These workers can now be gainfully employed to boost the rural economy. Many States like Uttar Pradesh are already mapping the blue collar migrant workers with their skill sets to make a realistic assessment and deployment.

Focus has also shifted from large industries to Medium and small-scale industries (MSMEs). PM Modi in his Independence Day speech had emphasized on this. A number of schemes are being promulgated focused on MSMEs. Banks are also being encouraged to provide loans to boost this sector.

Lockdown had caused pollution levels to fall to a level not seen for many, many years. It was a boon for our environment. After a very long time, blue skies were a reality. Far off Mountains became easier to see. Birds and animals hitherto thought extinct have been spotted. They were also found ambling on empty city streets during the lockdown. It may be a short-term gain but the environment had a chance to recharge itself.

Unlike other service industries, the contraction in Insurance industry premium was not substantial. Covid related claims ratio has increased due to increase in the cost of treatment of Covid patients and excess billing by hospitals but health insurance premium has also increased substantially to keep the portfolio revenue neutral for the insurers. Health insurance has gained importance during the pandemic. More people are taking health insurance policies. It has become the highest grosser for the insurance companies. Insurance companies have also come out with various Covid specific policies which have become very popular. Motor insurance sales had plummeted due to lack of manufacturing and sales during the pandemic but are now back to pre-lockdown levels. Online insurance has increased. People are preferring to take/ renew policies online. IRDAI and Insurance companies have come up with various customer friendly measures to rise to the occasion including extending the time period for payment of premium, Online acceptance of Claim forms, etc.

As they say 'Every dark cloud has a silver lining'. Pandemic is no exception. There are lots of opportunities that have been created. We need to capitalize and turn it into an opportunity. Let go of the past, be ebullient and welcome the New Year!

[The author is Fellow III, Dip CII, UK, MBA, OSHA, Turin Entrepreneur, Insurance and Risk Management Consultant and the views expressed are strictly personal.]