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Advance Estimates: GDP may peak to 8.9% in current fiscal

By TIOL News Service

NEW DELHI, MAR 01, 2022: REAL GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 147.72 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of Rs 135.58 lakh crore, released on 31.01.2022. The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9 percent as compared to a contraction of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.

Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 236.44 lakh crore, as against Rs 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.4 percent.

GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 38.22 lakh crore, as against Rs 36.26 lakh crore in Q3 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 5.4 percent.

The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. The Revised Estimates of tax revenue for 2021-22 as available in the Annual Financial Statement of the Central Government for 2022-23, latest information on the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices.  For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies for Centre were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website, additional information on food subsidy provided by the Ministry of Finance and Revised Estimates for 2021-22. The expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States upto December 2021 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/Statewise BE provision for 2021-22 were used to compile product subsidies of States. Latest information available on Revenue Expenditure, Interest Payments, Subsidies etc. for Centre and those based on detailed analysis of budget documents of States for 2021-22 were also put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

Actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies in the following months, data revisions made by other source agencies etc. would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures.

The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter January-March, 2022 (Q4 of 2021-22) and Provisional Annual Estimates for the year 2021-22 will be on 31.05.2022.


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