TIOL - COB( WEB) - 928
JULY 11, 2024

By Shailendra Kumar, Founder Editor

THE world history is replete with parables like empires are always built with an expiry date but civilisations survive for millenniums. To name a few, they are the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, and the Ottoman Empire. If we paraglide to China, the longest of ancient Chinese dynasty was the Zhou dynasty between 1046 BC to 256 BC. During this era, China's most erudite thinkers and philosophers, including Confucius, joyfully lived and richly contributed to the global reservoir of wisdom for the rulers as well as the commoners. Unlike the French Machiavelli, who preached amoral statecraft for the ruler to earn trust of the people while practising oppressions and stratagems, Confucius cautioned against use of force or the threat of punishment to maintain power - "Your job is to govern, not to kill'!

Unfortunately, Confucian sermons have become 'foreign' to the present day rulers of Beijing, who have issued death threat to Taiwanese nationalists for being loyal to their democratic government, committed to protect liberty of its citizens. Empire-building rulers of China are resolutely determined to gobble up Taiwan the way they did it to Hong Kong. Beijing no longer appears to be in a mood to go for modus vivendi with Taipei! The Chinese President, Mr Xi Jinping, sees unification of Taiwan with the mainland China as a 'historical inevitability', tout court! Beijing has developed strong 'dislike gland' for all those countries which have established diplomatic and trade ties with Taipei - only 13, thus far!. The Jupiterian Jinping is seemingly in an unholy haste to annex Taiwan at 'any cost' and within a time-frame too! The grim-faced President seems to be following an Orwellian maxim - "If you want to keep a secret, hide it from yourself!" In other words, he has stipulated a deadline in his Freudian 'Iceberg' to invade Taiwan but he has shared it with none! Therefore, the looming invasion is a subject of as much speculation for the PLA and Taiwan as it is for the US, which has vowed to defend Taipei, if any attempt is made to alter its status quo.

In my understanding, the geopolitical fracture in the Sino-American relations is not as much attributable to economic reasons as it is to firewalling Beijing's territorial obsession to control Taiwan, diplomatically and militarily! The bilateral relations between Beijing and Washington have been hurtling down without a pause since 2018! Though the top diplomats from both the tents have been maintaining a semblance of diplomatic jaw-jaw but the livid Washington and the Sinophobic Congress are of the view that Mr Jinping has become a serious jeopardy for the global peace and the prevailing international economic order! The beginning of a New Cold War, for sure! Treating the US-led Western bloc as a stomach-churning bump, Beijing has openly lurched towards Moscow to undergird its own tent which is now teeming with all sorts of autocrats and monarchs. To enlarge the perimeter of its tent, China has, of late, been shrugging off its shoulders to all international treaties and rule-based international order a la clashes with Philippines and lordship over vital maritime route - South China Sea. It misses no opportunity to scoff at Western values like human rights and civil rights to citizens. Riding the crest of an economic wave of growth for many decades, it has injected mammoth resources to fortify its military power in the air, the land and the sea. It has been rapidly gearing up to accomplish its 'Mission Taipei' and does not shy away from multiplying its stockpiles of nuclear warheads which has virtually triggered a new armament race in all parts of the world.

As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the world military outlay has leapfrogged by 7% to USD 2440 billion in 2023 - the highest in the last 60-year history. Intriguingly, the growth has been recorded in all geographical pockets of the world. The Middle East itself has spent over whopping USD 200 billion. Anyway, two major spenders are the US and China and they together account for 50% of the global military budget - America (37%) and China (12%). The Biden Administration has gone for USD 800 billion outlay with 9.4% increase in the budget for R&D. Though dwarfed by the US, China, the second largest spender, allocated close to USD 300 bn in 2023 but what is more noteworthy, is the fact that China has been spending aggressively on its military for the past 29 years. And this consistency in investments in military R&D and modernisation of its forces has now produced dystopian hubris in the Beijing establishment a la a sharp rise in military misadventures on all fronts - Indian borders to South China Sea to Taiwan Strait!

Two eventualities which I ruefully foresee in the present decade, are - No amount of suasion or threat would ever deter Beijing from annexing Taiwan by force a la the perennial hybrid warfare - frequent full-fledged military drills in Taiwan strait (175 flights of fighter planes crossed median line in June, 2024) and the claim of sovereignty over entire South China Sea and also East China Sea - up to Japanese islands. China has been amassing its naval assets at a geometrical pace besides modernising its air force for carrying lethal and toxic weapons. What may advance the time-frame of 'almost inevitable' invasion of Taiwan is the rapidly-atrophying muscles of the Chinese economy, causing joblessness among the youth and widespread consternation among the commoners. Secondly, Mr Jinping would be due for election for his next term in 2027. He needs something overwhelming and tactile to showboat before the elections! Incidentally, PLA is also going to be a centenarian force in 2027. All these forces combined together and the growing curve of economic ostracism by the West, may nudge Beijing to lose its sangfroid and move faster than the defenders of Taiwan may expect it to be!

Will the results of the US Presidential poll in November have any bearing on Mr Jinping's strategic gameplan? Unlike Mr Joe Biden, the likely occupant of the Oval Office, Mr Donald Trump, is largely construed as non-committal and, at best, ambivalent. In fact, the approach of the US foreign policy towards Taiwan is officially called - 'Strategic Ambiguity'! It is widely speculated that Mr Trump is generally averse to lock horns militarily with any country and Beijing may be precise in its assessment of no active involvement with the American defence forces if it encircles Taiwan. But, I strongly feel that such a reading of Mr Trump's pre-poll overtures would be off the mark! Taiwan is immensely pivotal for the US - economically as well as geopolitically. Taiwan is the key source of semiconductors. These microchips are deployed in everything from computers, mobile phones, medical devices, cars, military weapons and now, AI. Taipei produces over 90% of advanced chips and close to 60% of the world's semiconductors. The global supply chain of these chips is stoutly aligned with the US companies like Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm and AMD. If the supply of chips is disrupted by the lurking Chinese invasion, it would predictably have devastating consequences for the global economy - another bout of depression, perhaps! In 2023, Taiwan climbed the ladder to become the 16th largest trading economy with transactions surpassing USD 800 billion! When the Covid-marred world was confronting acute paucity of chips, Taiwan had trade worth USD 100 billion with the US in 2021.

More than the economic necessity, Taiwan is hugely vital for the strategic reasons to the US. It is a critical link in the US-friendly chain of territories that wall off China's heft in the Pacific. The waters around Taiwan are the home to the heaviest shipping lanes to deliver goods to the world. This part of the Pacific is thick with cargo ships and cruisers. America's Asian friends like Japan, South Korea and Philippines depend on these shipping lanes for their flourishing trade. If China manages to take over Taiwan, besides global shipping and logistics, it would have deadly repercussions for the political and economic order of the Indo-Pacific. Taiwan's strategic location serves myriad strategic purposes for regional powers. Once China occupies Taipei, it would step up its coercion campaigns against Japan, Philippines and others in the zone. It would be barely 110 km from Japan and about 200 km from Philippines. In fact, it would virtually amount to loss of geopolitical influence for the US in the Indo-Pacific. Against such a chilblained reality, America's Asian allies may even ponder over accommodating China's interests to ward off regular doses of coercions. Such strangulating dominance of Taiwan strait by China would not only upset the 'cross-Strait peace and stability' but would also have butterfly effect on regional and global security!

Now, the question which pops up in every mind is - Is there a message for Taiwan from Ukraine? Russia had never imagined that it was going to be a long-drawn and fiercely-resisted invasion. The Russian Generals had sold their chutzpah to their supremo that their army would cakewalk the targeted territories! But, owing to the bravery of the Ukrainian soldiers and the resolute backing by the local population, the Kremlin defence strategists' game plan turned out to be snake oil! So, can one expect the same 'X factor' from the common Taiwanese determined to defend their island home? Various surveys indicate that over 85% of Taiwanese are willing to go the Ukrainian way to resist Beijing's annexation attempt. With a population of 23 million and less than two lakh military personnel, Taiwan has indeed been equipping itself with modern military technologies and 'guerilla' tactics, adapted for urban warfare. It has acquired US-made Patriot air defence system and has also indigenously built surface-to-air anti-ballistic missiles called 'Sky Bow'. Besides state-of-the-art armed drones and other technologies from America, Taiwan has been sourcing technologies from many Western countries and also India for its domestic submarine programme. Taipie's idea is to hold on Chinese army till the US forces parachute along with their naval carriers! However, it continues to be a topic of speculation - Whether NATO partners would join the defensive war led by the US? If rule-based international order is to be upheld, many Western powers may assist the US forces but it may elbow itchy Moscow and even Pyongyang to become a direct or indirect party to the Chinese invasion! Holy Christ! This scenario conjures up a terrifying theatre of World War-III! Let's all take cover!