TIOL - COB( WEB) - 948
NOVEMBER 28, 2024

By Shailendra Kumar, Founder Editor

POLITICS makes strange bedfellows! Does it also apply to blossoming bromance between Donald Trump and Elon Musk? Perhaps, YES! Their bromance represents a bizzaro marriage of convenience - a merger of two combustible and patently contradicting personality attributes! One represents an enviable political power and the another is the wealthiest man on the planet! Though both are globally perceived as quirky 'weirdos' and narcissists capable of psychodrama with global ramifications but they are fundamentally known for different sets of extraordinary traits. Trump is a grassroot-level rustic politician whose tongue, many a times, fails to seamlessly harmonise its jaw-jaw with his cerebrum! He is also known for his low boiling threshold. Trump is highly impulsive, vindictive and autocratic in his demeanour. He is also infamous for not sharing the media floodlight with anyone for too long! In contrast, Musk is a super-genius, popular for his tech-utopianism and enviable dandyism. He is a free speech absolutist. He is also known for his slashing and burning personality trait - a brutal cost-cutter a la the Twitter deal! Trump calls him the greatest cutter - no less than a sledgehammer!

Though he is no less impulsive and instinctive than Trump but his moves appear to be arguably calculative in the hindsight! And his such a trait is well mirrored by his tactical gambit to put his heft behind Trump after Joe Biden snubbed him over the issue of workers' unionisation efforts at Tesla factory and several Federal agencies initiating investigation against his companies. Not long back in 2017, Musk had called Trump a 'con man' and also 'one of the world's best bullshitters'. After Capitol Hill riots in 2020, he had put 'ice' on Trump's Twitter account. In a befitting response, Trump later launched his own social media platform called Truth Social. Anyway, politics and business both spawn wacky bedfellows! Having been spurned by Biden, Musk wincingly jumped out of his X-tethered chair of troll-in-chief and also from being a silent political donor to a garrulous evangelist of Donald Trump - blaring at full pitch. It was a make-or-mar moment for him. Fortunately, the President-elect enveloped him in his arms as he was also facing daunting competition from his Democrat rival. Having found the coveted berth in Trump's inner coterie, it was no-holds-barred participation in Trump's every rabid campaign. He re-activated Trump's X's account and triggered a barrage of tweets. Eureka! Almost two billion views! Musk also opened his coffer and ended up 'sprinkling' over USD 200 million besides plucking his thinning hair over mercurial campaign strategies at Trump's Florida residence - Mar-a-Lago. He came up with many stress-eating ideas which Trump fell in love with! Musk has now earned unscheduled entry into Trump's house and is free to play his favourite music at dinner time.

The larger question is - how long this 'sozzled' honeymoon between the two narcissists may last? If one goes by anecdotes in the history book, such friendship between political power and wealth is highly perilous and brittle! A newspaper czar, William Hearst, had backed Franklin Roosevelt but the President did not listen to him on many foreign policy issues and they fell out. Andrew Carnegie, a steel mogul, and J P Morgan, a banker, had warmly supported Theodore Roosevelt but their friendships did not last long. Even in the case of Donald Trump, his bromance with the former chief of Exxon Mobil, Rex Tillerson, had a very short shelf life! So, it is being widely speculated that whether Musk's friendship would also fizzle out just as quickly? Though time will tell us about such a divorce but his popularity has, at present, crescendoed as he has come to be branded as 'Co-President' of America and 'Uncle Musk' at Trump's residence!

No matter how long this heady marriage may last but Trump has kept his words by making him co-head of a non-governmental body called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is in recognition of his cost-cutting, slashing and burning quality. What Trump could not do in his first term, he wants him to 'Drain the Swamp' in Washington DC during the first two years of his second term. Musk has been mandated to inject a can of fresh air into the government which is largely perceived by the Silicon Valley and the Wall Street as profligate and incompetent. Musk himself sees government as a serious bump to economic growth! Like the government in every country, the US Federal Government also needs a ruthless overhaul. Lo and behold! Musk has already gone on record stating that he would target slashing the annual Federal Budget by about USD two trillion - almost one-third of USD 6.7 trillion of 2023 budget and also dismantle several federal agencies! Wow! Why USD two trillion? This happens to be the annual discretionary spending of the government. Going by a 6% budget deficit and almost 100% national debt, one may see sagacity in his annual target. Even if he achieves a small slice of his target, the US has a lot to gain from this bold but fraught experiment!

However, the trillion-dollar question is - How can he realise such a milestone? How realistically feasible is his goal? Let's examine the major slabs of the discretionary spending. About half of it is allocated to defence. Two issues may pop up here - first, Trump is personally averse to any cut in defence budget, and second, Pentagon is already struggling to modernise its forces with drones, AI and robotics - resource-guzzlers by all standards. So, it appears to be a no-go zone! The remaining half of the budget goes towards education, science, national parks and transport. Expenses under these heads have statistically leapfrogged since the Covid days. If he slashes a major chunk of it, the Trump administration may find itself in the throes of a barrage of lawsuits. Similar consequences are likely if certain Federal agencies are abolished to trim the size of the 'swamp'! Other battlegrounds which even devils fear to tread on, are the social security and Medicare which eat up almost one-third of annual budget. Since the life-span of an average American has sharply risen, Musk may weigh down the option of increasing the age for eligibility. True, it would not be a politically cosy choice particularly when Trump has pledged just the opposite during his campaign. Anyway, if he succeeds in his austerity measures, the US may save a bit over trillion dollar in the next 10 years. Even if he spectacularly fails but succeeds in imposing a cap on discretionary budget and other expenses by two per cent, it would save the Federal government from lurching into deep fiscal drenches to some extent.

The most interesting aspect of his appointment is that the DOGE is not a government department and its recommendations would not be binding on the Administration. I am sure that when Trump would find his recommendations politically unpalatable, he would throw cold towel over them and that may ramrod his bromance with Musk. Secondly, the Congress is going to be his most difficult stumbling block. Thirdly, Musk needs to brace up for an avalanche of allegations of corruption, cronyism, oligarchy and a conflict of interests. Given that his company SpaceX has bagged over USD 15 bn worth of contracts from Pentagon and also NASA, predictably, they would look for more businesses from the military and other government agencies. Secondly, if Trump discontinues Biden's tax credit scheme for EVs as he had pledged, it may not hurt Tesla much but would certainly throw other automobile companies out of kilter. This would also call for hairy eyeballs against him. If Trump goes for 60% tariff against Chinese EVs, it may protect Tesla from the heat of competition at home but may spark ire of China against Tesla's local factory which is the mother of half of Musk's personal wealth. What may further go against Musk and may trigger a rupture in his bromance with Trump is his aggression in the uncharted territory of geopolitics and the organised profession of diplomacy a la his unscheduled meeting with the Iranian envoy to the UN. Brussels has already activated its 'aversion gland' after he threw a volley of biles against the European digital regulations impacting the US-based social media giants. He also recently called the German Chancellor a 'fool'! Voila! Such a language is construed as outré in the European bloc of nations. If one goes by the doctrine of preponderance of probability, it is most likely that Musk would feel suffocated in the federal government setups as he is known for his scant regards for rules and would end his 'unstructured' and loosely-tied honeymoon by leaving the DOGE-turf in a huff! Let's buckle up and keep an eye on the wall clock for this quake to happen! Sacré bleu!