TIOL - COB( WEB) - 959
FEBRUARY 13, 2025

By Shailendra Kumar, Founder Editor

AS widely predicted and also feared, the 47th American President, 'Storm' Donald, has not disappointed the global audience even an iota by his grotesque decisions. As pledged by him, he ignited his deeply-embedded 'motor of craziness' right on the first day of his presidency by signing a bizarro barrage of Executive Orders like a tempest! In the unfolding week, he took an array of ostensibly eerie decisions which weirded out America's allies and foes alike. While commenting on his spooky policy moves, many geopolitical savants have simply dubbed him as crackpot! Before I dwell on a flurry of Trumpian decisions taken in the past three weeks, let me first delve deeper into a popular philosophical explanation which talks about a 'method in madness' - a clearly-defined purpose for exhibiting idiosyncrasy. And it is called the 'Madman Theory' of foreign policy. Such a theory was coined centuries back in 1517 by the reputed Italian political philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli. He had argued that for political leaders, in certain situations, "it is very wise thing to simulate madness" (Discourses on Livy, book 3, chapter 2). For a long time, not much heed was paid to this theory. By the mid-twentieth century, when nukes posed a unique challenge for threat credibility, a sort of modern notion was developed to ward off certain threats by competing nations by adding a ring of unpredictability to the personality of a political leader. Though this political theory is equally valid for domestic politics but is more aggressively practised to mould foreign relations among countries.

Now, the befuddling question is - what is the essence of this madness theory? It is all about predictable unpredictability. The crux of this theory is the victimisation of predictability! The basic premise is that a leader must be perceived so volatile and irrational that others avoid triggering him in fear of an unpredictable response. It warrants a leader to deliberately etch a damning sketch of his insanity to make others believe that the 'actor' is indeed a madman so that they stand down fearing severe punishment or annihilation. It is more about making seemingly incredible threats seem credible! A leader's suicidal threats may look genuine if his fiercely guarded image of being irrational and quicksilver goes far and wide. To be known for acting a little crazy or stark, staring mad is theorised to be an asset under certain conditions. And it entails demonstrating utter theatricalism, hysteria and braggadocio. The madman theory may work as a strategy in coercive bargaining. The key tenet of the 'madman mantra' is to frighten opponents into conceding one's demands. In a nutshell, the success of this theory hinges on the ability of an 'actor' to act and being perceived unhinged, only to the extent that opponents feel induced to stand down. In other words, an adversary ought to fear his irrationality and mercurial approach but also trust him to the extent that if one stands down or accepts the demand, he would not be punished or peace may be allowed to prevail. Voila! It is a very complicated and tricky balance of a basket of coordinates such as one's theatrical skill, global portrayal of one's irrational and impulsive image, credulousness of opponents, credibility of threat and also faith in promises made by the 'madman' if his demands are ceded! Holy Trump! Can it be really translated into real life? Perhaps, NOT!

Let's take a deep dive into geopolitical 'colonoscopy' and parse into real-life examples of a few laboratory cases. Some of the high-octane adherents of this theory in our recent history were Adolf Hitler, the US President Richard Nixon and the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Though Hitler later established himself to be a genocidal freak but in 1938, he bought the conviction of the British that he is a psychotic case only for the cause of establishing a greater Germany. And the British had allowed him to partially annex a sliver of Czechoslovakia populated by the ethnic Germans. In 1968, Nixon and his National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger followed a newfangled playbook to unfold the spirit of the madman theory. On Kissinger's advice, the White House emissary visited Moscow and told Soviet top brass that Nixon was "a dramatically disjointed personality" and was capable of 'barbaric cruelty'; 'predictably unpredictable' and keeps his fingers on nuclear button. Nixon tried it to persuade the North Vietnamese and the Soviets to withdraw from Vietnam. But he failed. The Soviet leader Khrushchev also played out similar theatricals to capture entire Berlin and threatened to use nuclear weapons. During his meetings with Western officials, he used to exhibit make-believe extreme emotions and fury by yelling, throwing hands in the air and going red in the face. This was to convince White House to let him install nuclear warheads in Cuba but America did not buy his paranoia and he had to blink and withdraw N-missiles dispatched to Cuba. Two other zealots of the madman theory were the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussain and Col Qaddafi whose madness did not pay them off well. The US military intervened and simply killed them. So, it is very clear that political leaders of smaller and weaker nations cannot afford to be its adherents unless they want to see their existence erased by a stronger nation.

The most recent examples are the Russian President Putin and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In both cases, the madman theory has partially yielded positive results. Putin keeps reiterating his nuclear threat periodically to wall off Western support and military involvement in the on-going Ukraine war. Though the US and its European allies have been providing advanced weapons and missiles to Kyiv but NATO has eschewed the option of sending military to defend Ukraine. So, Putin's madman demeanour has partly worked. Similarly, Netanyahu was once called a 'crazy' leader when he opened war on several fronts against Israel's enemies. But even his fiercest enemies do not believe that he is so raving mad that he would invade his friendlier neighbours like Egypt and Jordan. However, Tehran does not discount his proclivity to go off his trolley and smack back if Israel is hit. So, Iran finds him cranky enough and takes his threats seriously and also prefers not locking horns beyond a symbolic machismo. Similar is the case with Pyongyang. North Korea's dictator Kim Jong Un is widely known for his pathological behaviour. He often takes clumsy actions like long-range missile-testing without warning to the neighbouring nations to dumping of garbage in the South Korean capital. Gosh! That too sans any provocation. His irrationality and ability to go bonkers convince most countries about the unpredictability trait of his personality. He is yet to find an ostensibly competent match albeit Mr Trump was in race with him during his first term. Both exchanged indecent barbs and rhetoric and finally powpowed in person and Trump later said that he had fallen in love with him! His madman strategy can also be analysed against his army's participation in the Ukraine war.

All these examples of practitioners of madman theory finally bring us to Donald Trump. Even before stepping into the Oval Office, he had styled himself as an unpredictable leader and vouched that doing so muscles the American foreign policy. He is on record - "We must as a nation be more unpredictable". And, true to his words, he has been stretching the canvas of unpredictability with each passing day. He fired his first salvo by setting a deadline for ceasefire in Gaza. His tendency to go bananas apparently gave Israel goose pimples and nudged it to speed up the ceasefire talks and also seal it. His second salvo came when he expressed his whims to grab foreign territories like Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal and now, Gaza strip. Although his aides strenuously tried to walk back his statements but there is no change in his awe-inspiring gait. Then, he decided to withdraw from the Paris Climate Change treaty when a large sliver of his country is confronting catastrophic nature of such a change a la LA wildfires and frequent atmospheric rivers raining down mountains of snow. Even before the world could digest a flurry of shocks, he announced that America would quit WHO! Then came the tariff missiles where he went soft on his archrival China with 10% rate and 25% on two of his close allies - Canada and Mexico. Though the datasets do not leg up his allegations of rising fentanyl smuggling and floods of immigration through their borders but he wants them to take harsh measures. Within 48 hours of his announcement, he displayed another bout of recklessness by pausing the tariff notification for 30-days.

On the domestic front, for no legitimate reasons, he gave free hand to his 'Siamese twin' Elon Musk to put one of America's reputed federal agencies USAID to gallows which has resulted in pandemonium across the world. He has virtually unleashed a blitzkrieg of actions against the core function of the state and allowed Musk-headed DOGE to unwind several federal departments in the name of slashing spending and enhancing efficiency. In the process, he has been eroding the hard-earned soft power of America. Then comes the retributive action of denying security clearances and regular briefing by the intelligence agencies to his predecessor Joe Biden. On his personal social media, he wrote: "Joe, you are fired"! Similar actions were taken against Antony Blinken and Jack Sullivan, former Secretaries in the Biden Administration. Trump has consistently been threatening not foes but his own allies with tariff and other actions. Driven by the size of trade deficits, he has been threatening reciprocal tariffs. In addition, he last Monday imposed uniform 25% tariff on steel and aluminium on all nations without exception!

It has become very clear that transactional nihilism is now at the heart of Trump's foreign policy which would work with hurricane-force bombast. So whimsical and erratic has he become during his second term that he imposed sanctions even on International Criminal Court for doing its job against Israel. The unpredictability veneer of his personality has gone beyond comprehension even for the American Nobel Laureates. When the helmsman of a superpower becomes so whimsical and irrational, it clearly poses immense danger to the global peace and the global economy. Though political and security theorists feel tempted to bracket him as a poor adherent of the madman theory but many also tend to dub him as a 'madman'! Whatever he is, the fact remains that the application of madman theory is often counterproductive as there exists a very thin line between acting like a madman and being a madman! If Trump continues to put on additional obscure layers to his hallucinating decision-making method, the days are not far off when most global leaders would prefer keeping him at distance, and even doing minimum business with the US. Or, one will have to learn the art of flattery to woo Trump - the last of the 'Geopolitical Mohicans' of a sui generis genre. America's prosperity looks to be in serious danger! Amusingly eccentric time lies ahead for humanity and our planet as too many practitioners of the madman theory have surfaced on the horizon! Let's take shelter! Ciao!